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post #11 of 15 (permalink) Old 07-17-2017, 03:46 PM
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It's not a theory, nor is what it does in various areas of finance (e.g. nobody buys a house, they buy a payment, etc.)

We wouldn't have "average" new car deals over $35k without this. Not a prayer in Hell; there's no chance of the average family having that sort of money if rates were at 7% for car deals and 5% for 20% down home mortgages (and at least 500bps higher if you were under 20%.) It extends everywhere, from housing to cars to corporate and municipal finance, and it's all in the data for anyone who cares to look.

There are plenty of people who think "AI" is going to make self-driving cars (true ones, Type V with no wheel or pedals) happen within the next few years. I'll take the other side of that bet. "AI" is nothing more than pattern recognition which is why they're feeding MILLIONS of vehicle miles worth of data into these systems to process, yet you put 40 hours of wheel time on a 16 year old and they're considered minimally competent for a license. Why? Because the kid can actually think (synthesize "out of scope" with what the kid has actually SEEN while driving thus far) and the computer cannot; it can only compare with what it has in its fed-in data to make a decision. Either that changes (which no computer in history has yet achieved and there's no indication one will either) or the paradigm and data sets required for "truly autonomous cars" to function have to be established -- and neither is happening within the next few years.

As for pure electric, sorry, but nope. The laws of physics (specifically, thermodynamics) are not suggestions.
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post #12 of 15 (permalink) Old 07-18-2017, 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by tickerguy View Post
Well, expect used car prices to plunge further generally.

Why? Because "new car" prices have skyrocketed, driven by "cheap money" (financing deals which include leases.)
Everything I read is that used car prices are expected to decline because of the glut of lease returns about to hit dealers from the '13 to '15 banner years after the great recession.

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Originally Posted by b1lk1 View Post
Buying a new car with any intentions of selling it within the first 10 years will certainly be you throwing money away. Never buy new unless you plan to keep it for a very long time.
Everyone spends money on something they enjoy. You obviously don't enjoy new cars so you choose to drive them into the ground. That's fine for you. I very much enjoy new cars so I trade them in every 3-4 years. I accept the average $250 per month depreciation I pay in order to have the new car smell, as opposed to the $50-$100 per month I might pay driving a 5+ year old car. I do 95% of my own maintenance work around the house so I more than make up for it there. I saved over $3,000 by painting my own house. Took 5 full days to do it, but I got to spend that money on a new car instead. No regrets!

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post #13 of 15 (permalink) Old 07-18-2017, 09:26 AM
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If you like a new car every 2-3 years then leasing is the best possible option. I would love a new car, I used to switch up new cars every few years when we could afford it.

I simply do not have the disposable cash to buy new. My situation in life does not allow me to commit to a $400+ a month payment (everything is much more expensive in Canada) for the next 5+ years. I even have mixed feelings about carrying a mortgage because my life would be much simpler if I did not have to worry about maintaining a house as well.

It really comes down to one's financial situation. I prefer to own and maintain. If I average out how much I spend on parts (I do all my own work) I likely spend $200 a month to maintain my used car. The main difference is that if I can't afford my monthly payment, meaning my car is broken down and I can't afford the part, the repo man doesn't come looking for it.

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post #14 of 15 (permalink) Old 07-18-2017, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by b1lk1 View Post
If you like a new car every 2-3 years then leasing is the best possible option. I would love a new car, I used to switch up new cars every few years when we could afford it.

I simply do not have the disposable cash to buy new. My situation in life does not allow me to commit to a $400+ a month payment (everything is much more expensive in Canada) for the next 5+ years. I even have mixed feelings about carrying a mortgage because my life would be much simpler if I did not have to worry about maintaining a house as well.

It really comes down to one's financial situation. I prefer to own and maintain. If I average out how much I spend on parts (I do all my own work) I likely spend $200 a month to maintain my used car. The main difference is that if I can't afford my monthly payment, meaning my car is broken down and I can't afford the part, the repo man doesn't come looking for it.
I'm confident I've done no worse financially by trading in and buying versus leasing. I always search out the one car that's discounted most on dealer lots in the region. I'm flexible on color and most options. Every new car I've bought in the past 10 years has been at roughly a 20% discount under MSRP. My depreciation on all my traded in cars has been in the $230-250 range on average per month. That's less than the (effective) lease payment I would expect on those cars as they were optioned. And by buying you can trade in whenever you want and you don't risk getting hit with fees at least turn in.

You spend $200 per month to maintain - I probably spend less than $200 per year to maintain the typical new car. Even less if the first few oil changes are free which they commonly are these days.

But we do agree that it depends on each individual's financial situation and preferences. Some folks like to spend money on cruises, electronics, custom wheels for their car, etc. I don't.

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post #15 of 15 (permalink) Old 07-18-2017, 10:03 AM Thread Starter
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Great discussion guys!

I'm currently coming from two vastly different experiences:

* A 1998 Honda Accord that I bought in 2003 with 78K miles, and drove until 2013, hitting 240K miles. At that point I gave the Accord to my dad, and then drove:

* A 2010 Subaru Legacy 2.5GT, that I bought in 2013 with 69K miles, and sold in 2016 with 112K miles.

Aside from the performance of each car, the biggest difference between the two was that the Subaru required a $6,000 engine rebuild at 108K miles, just 8K miles past its CPO warranty. The thing broke my heart and really salted me from owning another Subaru, ever.

On the flipside, my dad returned the Accord to me a couple of months ago with 335K miles. Yes, it's seen better days and it requires a quart of oil every week or two, but the damn thing *runs*.

No reason to go into all the details on why one worked better than the other -- I've beaten all of that to death in my head -- but I hope you have an idea why I was asking about Mazda's depreciation. I wasn't sure if it was something like the RX-8, where they go kaboom after 50K miles, or if it was purely based on good ol' devaluation.

It sounds to me from the replies that there aren't any glaring, obvious issues, but more so that they're not hugely in-demand cars, and don't hold their resale value well...

Which is great (at least now)
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